Lineage-derived analysis of the concrete paths along which controlled technology could move.
Conventional export-control tooling asks whether a document carries a controlling marking. The Transfer Risk Index asks a provenance question that a marking-only scanner cannot: along which concrete chain of authorship, attribution, derivation, and cross-asset reference could controlled technology actually move.
Critically, it returns that chain as a first-class artifact rather than only a score, so a finding arrives with the evidence that justifies it.
The conventional signal captures explicit export-control indicators and handling markings. Foreign lineage performs a bounded walk up the derivation ancestry, scoring by proximity, so a directly attributed party scores higher than one several derivations removed.
Downstream reach performs a bounded, deterministic traversal across the relationship graph to the nearest asset attributed to a party of concern, and reconstructs the ordered path. A sensitivity amplifier reflects program sensitivity and handling categories.
The two most novel factors depend on a configurable policy input: the nationality register and the allied set the caller supplies. The index is therefore only as sound as that register's completeness.
We characterize it accordingly as an analyst-supporting heuristic that produces evidence for review, not an authoritative adjudication of deemed-export status. Presenting it otherwise would misrepresent what the mechanism can know.
Explicit control indicators and handling markings.
Bounded ancestry walk scored by derivation proximity.
Deterministic traversal returning an ordered evidence path.
Program sensitivity and handling category weighting.